CBS Newsletter
Winter 1996
pg. 5

A Report to the World Energy Council

LBNL's Energy Analysis Program delivers a key energy efficiency study to WEC

On October 8-13, the 16th Congress of the World Energy Council, entitled "Energy for Our Common World: What Will the Future Ask of Us?", was held in Tokyo, Japan. The Congress brought together more than 5,000 key policy makers, industrial representatives, and researchers to discuss the sustainable production and use of energy.

At the Congress, Mark Levine, Head of the Center's Energy Analysis Program, presented findings from a two-year collaborative research effort on energy efficiency in industry and buildings that involved participants from 10 countries. The research culminated in a 500-page report, "Energy Efficiency Improvement Utilising High Technology: An Assessment of Energy Use in Industry and Buildings." The report, written by Mark Levine, Nathan Martin, and Lynn Price of LBNL and Ernst Worrell of Utrecht University, analyzes energy use in industry and buildings drawing examples from 23 commissioned case studies of energy-efficient technologies in these two sectors. Lee Schipper and Jayant Sathaye of EAP's International Energy Studies Group contributed to the companion report on transportation produced by Norway's Statoil.

The industry and buildings report, which was well received in Tokyo, analyzed global historical trends in energy use and efficiency in five energy-intensive industrial sectors (Iron and Steel, Pulp and Paper, Chemicals, Petroleum Refining, and Building Materials) and in residential and commercial buildings. Together, the top five energy-intensive sectors account for about 45% of total industrial energy use. Some of the most dramatic energy-efficiency improvements in these energy-intensive sectors were the result of advances in manufacturing processes and equipment improvements. For example, the increased use of scrap or recycled material in the steel and paper industries has greatly reduced the energy required to produce an additional unit of output. In buildings, equipment improvements such as high-efficiency lighting and appliances have also reduced unit energy consumption. Considerable potential (on the order of 1 to 2% annually) still exists for efficiency improvement in these sectors.

These efficiency potentials were evaluated in light of expected global changes in the demand for industrial products and buildings services and were incorporated into three scenarios to estimate future energy use. Industrial energy use is expected to grow by 1.4% annually through 2020 under a business-as-usual scenario (see figure). This growth can be slowed to about 0.8% per year through replacement of existing stock with the current most efficient technologies available. In a world in which an ecological imperative leads to rapid and widespread use of advanced technology, industrial energy use in 2020 can remain at the 1990 level despite growth in global industrial output ranging from 0.8% to 2.7% per year, depending upon the sector. In all three of these scenarios, energy demand growth for buildings is about 1% per year higher than for industry. As a result, the buildings sector is likely to use more commercial energy than all of industry within a quarter of a century unless energy-use patterns change unexpectedly.

The most striking finding was the tremendous growth in energy demand that is taking place in developing countries. Energy use for buildings has tripled since 1971, while industrial energy has more than doubled. Given the continued development of infrastructure and buildings in developing countries, demand is expected to increase rapidly. In China, for example, cement production (for roads and buildings) has doubled since 1988, making it the world's largest cement producer.

Given these findings, the report noted three essential requirements for an energy-efficient future: (1) aggressive energy-efficiency policies, that promote adoption of cost-effective technologies; (2) major programs to transfer knowledge, technology, and policy tools to the developing world and the restructured economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union; and (3) continued efforts to pursue research and development in technologies and practices to increase energy efficiency in industrial processes and buildings. For further information concerning the details of this report, contact Mark Levine, Nathan Martin, or Lynn Price. An abridged edition of the report is also available on the World Wide Web.

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Mark Levine
(510) 486-5238
Nathan Martin
(510) 486-5137
Lynn Price
(510) 486-6519
Fax for all of the above: (510) 486-6996

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