What Can History Teach Us About Energy Forecasts?

Graph of total U.S. primary energy use, made in the 1970s
December 2002

A new article by Ashok Gadgil and Jon Koomey, of EETD, and Paul Craig, Professor Emeritus of Engineering at the University of California at Davis, published in the 2002 Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, assesses the success of many of the major long-term energy forecasts published in the United States dating back to the 1960s.

A second article by Jon Koomey of EETD and others in the same publication examines four energy-related questions (on energy and electricity use, power quality, and oil reserves in the Arctic), and how energy analysts and the mass media have unwittingly contributed to the spread of inaccurate information.