Survey of Western U.S. Electric Utility Resource Plans

TitleSurvey of Western U.S. Electric Utility Resource Plans
Publication TypeJournal Article
LBNL Report NumberLBNL-6545E
Year of Publication2014
AuthorsWilkerson, Jordan, Peter H. Larsen, and Galen L. Barbose
JournalEnergy Policy
Volume66
Pagination90-103
Date Published03/2014
PublisherElsevier
Abstract

We review long-term electric utility plans representing ~90% of generation within the Western U.S. and Canadian provinces. We address what utility planners assume about future growth of electricity demand and supply; what types of risk they consider in their long-term resource planning; and the consistency in which they report resource planning-related data. The region is anticipated to grow by 2% annually by 2020 – before Demand Side Management. About two-thirds of the utilities that provided an annual energy forecast also reported energy efficiency savings projections; in aggregate, they anticipate an average 6.4% reduction in energy and 8.6% reduction in peak demand by 2020. New natural gas-fired and renewable generation will replace retiring coal plants. Although some utilities anticipate new coal-fired plants, most are planning for steady growth in renewable generation over the next two decades. Most planned solar capacity will come online before 2020, with most wind expansion after 2020. Fuel mix is expected to remain ~55% of total generation. Planners consider a wide range of risks but focus on future demand, fuel prices, and the possibility of GHG regulations. Data collection and reporting inconsistencies within and across electric utility resource plans lead to recommendations on policies to address this issue.

Notes

The attached report is a pre-print version of an article accepted for publication by Energy Policy. To view the Energy Policy article, click here.

DOI10.1016/j.enpol.2013.11.029
AttachmentSize
PDF1.67 MB