This paper describes an initial evaluation of the load-normalization technique embodied in the California Energy Commission's (CEC) peak demand forecasting model for possible application as a means for end-use load data transfer. Metered, residential central air conditioner data collected by the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) (Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) 1987) and by the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) are the basis for comparison.

The goal of this paper, in addition to evaluation of the CEC technique, is to illustrate two issues that we believe will always be important for evaluations end-use load shape data transfer methods: 1) the appropriateness of evaluation methods that distinguish between energy use and load shape; and 2) the criteria used to evaluate end-use load shape transfer techniques

We motivate the evaluation by describing the CEC load-normalization technique and its relevance for end-use load shape data transfer. We then describe the method used to evaluate the CEC technique. Finally, we present our findings and discuss their significance.