China End-Use Energy Demand Modeling

October 8, 2009 (All day)

As a consequence of soaring energy demand due to the staggering pace of its economic growth, China overtook the United States in 2007 to become the world's biggest contributor to CO2 emissions (IEA, 2007). Since China is still in an early stage of industrialization and urbanization, economic development promises to keep China's energy demand growing strongly. Furthermore, China's reliance on fossil fuel is unlikely to change in the long term, and increased needs will only heighten concerns about energy security and climate change. In response, the Chinese government has developed a series of policies and targets aimed at improving energy efficiency, including both short-term targets and long-term strategic goals. Evaluating the success and potential of these policies requires extensive details on energy end-use across the multiple sectors of the economy. . At the same time, the U.S. government is looking to understand China's energy dynamics as part of their engagement on climate change mitigation. However, most energy models in China and around the world lack the capacity to model energy demand by end use, calling into question the robustness of the model results. This talk describes the China bottoms-up end-use model developed by the LBNL using the LEAP framework that provides the ability to capture a) the potential for efficiency improvement by technology; b) the impacts of efficiency programs; and c) the impact of technology trends, as well as the energy intensity improvement potential disaggregated by end use sector, saturation, usage, and technology size/scale. Using the model, a series of energy efficiency and policy scenarios were developed to provide more insight into long-term dynamics and the impact of policies. Applications of the model, including examination of China's 2020 development target, the potentials of efficiency improvements in in meeting the 20% energy intensity reduction target stipulated in the 11th Five Year Plan, and the role of energy efficiency in potential GHG emission abatement and potential energy supply issues through 2050 will also be presented. For more information about this seminar, please contact: Lynn Price

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