Simulating Random Natural Variability in Time-Varying Atmospheric Concentrations of Toxic Gas from Pipeline Ruptures

Speaker(s): 
Date: 
February 4, 2004 - 12:00pm
Location: 
Bldg. 90
Seminar Host/Point of Contact: 

Random time series are found everywhere in nature.  The Brownian motion of small particles; the price of assets (stocks) in financial markets; the diffusion of individual molecules through a membrane; the ballistic deposition of nano-particles onto a lattice substrate; and the time-varying concentration fluctuations at a point downwind from a pollution source all have a common dynamic description.  All are stochastic processes where the local rate of change of the variable has a natural drift back to some equilibrium state, combined with a random fluctuating component.  We will explore how a stochastic model for concentration fluctuations can be constructed for a fixed receptor (your nose), and used to generate a large ensemble of simulated concentration time series.  As a concrete example, these concentration time series will be used to estimate the event-to-event variability in how far downwind you must stand to avoid being killed by exposure to "identical" ruptures of a sour gas pipeline transporting a mixture of natural gas and hydrogen sulfide.  Finally, we will demonstrate the advantages of using direct event simulation (rather than probability distributions) when non-linear processes such as toxicology are involved.  An essential element of this demonstration will require breaking up a large sheet of peanut-brittle with a hammer, and having the audience digest the experimental data.

Add event to Google Calendar

Announcement List

To be added to our seminar annoucement list please, email the ETA Seminars Team. Seminars can change witout noticed, the best way to stay informed is to join our seminar email list. 

Site Access

For site access please email your request to etaseminars@lbl.gov. To arrive at Building 90 via the LBNL shuttle, take "Blue Uphill". Click here for the shuttle schedule. To ensure your site access is set-up send your request 36 hours in advance of the seminar.

Remote Access

Not able to attend in person? Remote participants can use ReadyTalk Audio & Net conference to phone in to listen, while viewing the presentation via the ReadyTalk site.

Web Access Code: 4864835

USA & Canada call-in number:
1 (866) 740-1260
Access Code: 4864835#

International callers:
Please visit this website to see if a toll-free call-in number is available for your international location.

If not, you will need to pay for the call yourself and use this phone number:

(303) 248-0285.