The Energy Analysis Program was recently commissioned to undertake a global assessment of energy efficiency in the industrial and buildings sectors. The study is titled "Energy Efficiency Utilising High Technology," and is available through the World Energy Council.
The report analyzes global historical trends in energy use and efficiency in five energy-intensive industrial sectors: iron and steel, pulp and paper, chemicals, petroleum refining, and buildings materials and shows that considerable potential (on the order of 1 to 2% annually) still exists for efficiency improvement in these sectors.
These efficiency potentials were evaluated in light of expected global changes in the demand for industrial products and were incorporated into three scenarios to estimate future energy use. Industrial energy use is expected to grow by 1.4% annually through 2020 under a business-as-usual scenario. This growth can be slowed to about 0.8% per year through replacement of existing stock with the current most efficient technologies available. In a world in which an ecological imperative leads to rapid and widespread use of advanced technology, industrial energy use in 2020 can remain at the 1990 level despite growth in global industrial output ranging from 0.8% to 2.7% per year, depending upon the sector.
The most striking finding was the tremendous growth in energy demand that is taking place in developing countries. Industrial energy use has more than doubled in this region since 1971. Given the continued development of infrastructure in developing countries, demand is expected to increase rapidly. In China, for example, cement production (for roads and buildings) has doubled since 1988, making it the world's largest cement producer.
Given these findings, the report noted three essential requirements for an energy-efficient future: (1) aggressive energy-efficiency policies that promote adoption of cost-effective technologies; (2) major programs to transfer knowledge, technology, and policy tools to the developing world and the restructured economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union; and (3) continued efforts to pursue research and development in technologies and practices to increase energy efficiency in industrial processes.
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