Measuring Benefits and Market Impact:
DOE-2 Buildings Design Tools

Market Impact of Energy-Efficient Products and Design Tools
Aided by LBNL Research and Development a

DOE-2 Buildings Design Tool

TOTALS

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MARKET IMPACTS

Total R&D Investment (current $ millions)

$15

Product market share in 1993 (% of units sold)

5%

Product market share in 2015 (% of units sold)

50%

Incremental value of product sales in 1993 b ($ millions, 1993 $)

$35

Incremental value of product sales in 2015 b ($ millions, 1993 $)

$300

CONSUMER BENEFITS ($ millions, present value in 1993 dollars)

Value of energy savings "in the bank" as of year-end 1993 c

$1,900

Lifetime value of savings for technologies installed through 1993 c

$2,800

Lifetime value of savings for technologies installed through 2015 c

?

Value of annual energy savings in 2015 c

?

NET present value of technologies installed through 1993 d

$2,000

NET present value of technologies installed through 2015 d

?

ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS

Carbon dioxide emissions avoided in 2015 (million tons/year)

?

Sulfur dioxide emissions avoided in 2015 (thousand tons/year)

?

Nitrogen oxide emissions avoided in 2015 (thousand tons/year)

?

Notes for the table above:

a. The time frame adopted for each case spans the first year of a product's use through the year 2015. Savings are computed with respect to a dynamic business-as-usual baseline (i.e., efficiency improvements attained without the new technology).

• For electronic ballasts, the baseline is core-coil magnetic ballasts and T12, 40-watt lamps up to 1990 and energy-efficient magnetic ballasts and T12, 34-watt lamps (mandated by standards) from 1990 forward. The efficiency case reflects electronic ballasts and T8, 32- watt lamps--3500 hours-per-year use.
• For windows, the baseline is dual-glazed windows for the residential sector and tinted single-glazed windows for the commercial sector. This baseline tends to underestimate savings in the early years for households (when single-glazed windows are still prevalent). Significant savings are attributed to daylighting made possible by the higher visible light transmission achieved by the advanced glazings in commercial buildings. No savings from gas fillings or from stick-on retrofit coatings are assumed.
• For appliance standards, the baseline is a market projection of price-driven improvements in energy efficiency. Minimum efficiency standards for each appliance are then implemented in the year called for by legislation.
• For DOE-2, the survey of major DOE-2 users indicated that they achieve 20% energy savings beyond what would have been the case without DOE-2. DOE-2 (or its descendants) will eventually be used for at least 50% of commercial construction, and energy performance standards will continue to be tightened based on analysis performed with DOE-2. However, it is too difficult to estimate the prospective savings. These savings would also include parts of the impacts shown here for windows, lighting, and equipment.

c. Value of energy savings, excluding added cost of efficient equipment. A 7% real discount is used to convert savings to a present value in 1993 dollars.

d. Present value of energy savings, net cost of efficient equipment. A 7% real discount rate is used to convert savings to present value in 1993 dollars. Net present values include lifetime savings of technologies installed in each year. The extra efficiency investment ("retail value") for buildings designed using DOE-2 to date is inferred based on a three-year payback; values for the future have not been estimated.

e. Excludes savings achieved by building standards based on DOE-2 analyses.