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Energy Sector Modeling

A complete version of the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is maintained at Berkeley Lab. This model is the source of the widely used forecasts published in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook (AEO). Berkeley Lab installs the latest AEO version of NEMS each year, when it is released by EIA. This model is then used for various policy analyses, notably for conducting the background analysis necessary for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to support proposed efficiency standards for several types of equipment specified by legislation. Currently analysis is ongoing on commercial unit central air conditioners, distribution system transformers, and residential furnaces and boilers. The Lab also prepares inputs to the Government Performance and Results Act submission of the Distributed Energy office of DOE. Several other projects using NEMS are also underway. One is attempting in enhance NEMS representation of electricity transmission congestion, and another is developing some standardized alternative scenarios for use in analysis of the benefits of energy efficiency, renewable energy, and distributed energy technologies. Berkeley Lab is also working to develop methods of linking market assessment using Geographic Information Systems analysis to NEMS.

Project Team:

Chris Marnay (Project Lead)
Ryan Wiser
Kristina Hamachi LaCommare
Etan Gumerman