EAP 1995 Annual Report
Introduction
This year the role of energy technology research and analysis supporting
governmental and public interests is again being challenged at high levels
of government. This situation is not unlike that of the early 1980s, when
the Administration questioned the relevance of a federal commitment to applied
energy research, especially for energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies.
Then Congress continued to support such activities, deeming them important
to the nation's interest. Today, Congress itself is challenging many facets
of the federal role in energy. The Administration is also selectively reducing
its support, primarily for the pragmatic objective of reducing federal expenditures,
rather than because of principles opposing a public role in energy. In this
climate it is useful to look at the numerous activities of the Energy Analysis
Program to reassess how they still relate to the national interest.
Our largest activity, with more than 30 staff members under the direction
of James McMahon and Isaac Turiel, is performing engineering and economic
analysis on appliance energy efficiency standards-an effort we have led
for the U.S. Department of Energy for the past 15 years. We estimate that
the appliance standards already implemented will cut energy demand by one
quad per year by the end of the decade, a savings on the order of $10 billion
per year. They will also reduce the need for more than forty 500-MW power
plants. Additional standards under consideration would yield even greater
benefits.
Another of our research areas is utility planning and policy. A tremendous
array of public policy issues-from transmission pricing to the role of utility
demand-side management and public goods R&D in a restructured industry-have
emerged as the utility industry enters a new era that is redefining the
industry itself. Utility regulatory commissions often do not have the resources
to research these issues. Furthermore, many of these issues are best addressed
at the national level, especially the development of methodologies relying
on quantitative models.
Our work on heat islands has invigorated a whole research area-assessment
of the causes and mechanisms to mitigate urban heat islands-by demonstrating
that reducing the trapping of heat in urban areas can be one of the most
significant and cost-effective means of improving urban air quality as well
as reducing energy use.
In the field of international energy demand, our multifaceted work continues:
analyzing energy demand in developing countries (with special attention
to China), Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, and the industrialized
nations; supporting developing countries on greenhouse gas mitigation; and
fostering programs to support activities implemented jointly between the
U.S. and developing countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
Federal procurement and market-conditioning policies are two more of the
Program's activities. Working with our Washington, D.C. colleagues, we are
leading efforts to encourage federal offices to purchase energy-efficient
equipment.
In light of uncertain political support for appliance standards and utility
analyses as well as the tremendous downward pressure on federal budgets
to assist or work with developing countries, we have established new initiatives
and thrusts for the Program to pursue. These initiatives all build on the
work that we now do and extend the work into new areas. We have chosen the
following six initiatives as our initial thrust:
- technical support for the energy-efficiency components of international
bank loans. Here we support developing countries that have energy-efficiency
programs. We envision working with these countries to craft energy-efficiency
policies, design capital investments for energy-efficiency projects, and
train personnel in various aspects of energy efficiency. Steve Wiel is leading
this initiative.
- international appliance labeling and standards. Our appliance standards
work is being extended to industrialized and developing nations. Jim McMahon
is leading this initiative for industrialized countries; Jim and Steve Wiel
are actively pursuing this for developing countries.
- global assessment of energy efficiency in buildings, industry, and
transportation. This initiative builds on the work performed for the Tokyo
World Energy Council in 1995. If funded, it will be a major international
collaboration for the World Energy Council meeting in Houston in 1998. A
global energy display and analysis laboratory is a logical follow-up of
the global assessment work. In conjunction with international energy analysts,
we will produce a state-of-the-art energy-efficiency assessment and disseminate
that information. Mark Levine is leading this initiative.
- U.S. energy supply, demand, and price modeling. This effort involves
LBNL establishing its capabilities to perform independent analyses of a
range of energy policy issues using the National Energy Modeling System
(developed by the U.S. Energy Information Administration) and other modeling
tools. Chris Marnay is the leader.
- benefit/cost/risk assessment of regulatory policies. This initiative
involves applying the tools developed in numerous analyses within the Energy
Analysis Program (including the extensive work on appliance standards) to
prioritize investment according to risk in other regulatory policies. Jim
McMahon is the leader.
- a multiclient study of energy issues in China. The first effort will
study energy demands of transportation in China and the implications for
liquid fuel requirements. This work is led by David Fridley.
We are also exploring four other major new initiatives:
- application of our Geographic Information Systems laboratory to energy
markets and electric utility applications.
- Presidio Pacific Center: the creation of a training institute fostering
sustainable development at the Presidio of San Francisco.
- transportation analysis: the development of data and modeling relating
to emissions, air quality, energy efficiency, travel demand, and economics.
- applications of the World Wide Web to energy efficiency: novel applications
(e.g., remote monitoring and calculations) and new approaches to information
dissemination.
As noted, these initiatives build on our work of the past decades, which
we continue to stress. We are eager to work with professional colleagues
on these initiatives. At this time, more than ever, excellent professional
collaborations are needed to address problems of national importance. Inquiries
about the initiatives can be made by sending e-mail to us at eap.initiative@lbl.gov.
This year, we have divided the Annual Report of the Energy Analysis Program
into three sections, corresponding to the three major thrusts of the Program.
These are "International Energy and the Global Environment," "Energy
Economics, Markets, and Policy," and "Buildings and Their Environment."
A description of our activities over the past year is presented in the following
pages.
| 1995 Annual Report | Contents
| Program Staff | EAP
Home Page |